Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DENVER AIR CONNECTION · FLIGHT KG 717 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

KG 717 · BJC → PHX

departs 2:32 PM MT · arrives 3:35 PM MT

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BJC that day

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ 2pm departures from BJC are usually not late

Weather at each end

BJC (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.28 in

PHX (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

KG 717 · BJC → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?