Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LUFTHANSA · FLIGHT LH 400
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
LH 400 · FRA → JFK
departs 10:54 AM CEST · arrives 1:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Tue 10/13 14%
Wed 10/14 15%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 27%
Sat 10/17 27%
Sun 10/18 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±3 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave FRA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
LH's recent on-time record
↑
JFK is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FRA
Weather at each end
FRA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,267 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.