Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LUFTHANSA · FLIGHT LH 416
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
LH 416 · FRA → IAD
departs 10:29 AM CEST · arrives 2:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Tue 10/13 11%
Wed 10/14 14%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 19%
Sat 10/17 19%
Sun 10/18 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave FRA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
FRA is busy at that time
↑
10am departures from FRA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FRA
↓
Arrivals into IAD at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
FRA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.