Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3421
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
MQ 3421 · CMI → ORD
departs 6:04 AM CT · arrives 7:19 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Tue 10/13 11%
Wed 10/14 33%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 19%
Sat 10/17 18%
Sun 10/18 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave CMI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at ORD that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from CMI are usually not late
Weather at each end
CMI (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.18 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.