Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3961
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
MQ 3961 · BOS → SDF
departs 3:04 PM ET · arrives 5:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Tue 10/13 25%
Wed 10/14 22%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 30%
Sun 10/18 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SDF that day
↑
3pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
SDF usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SDF (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.2 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.