Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3977
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
MQ 3977 · ORD → DTW
departs 10:44 AM CT · arrives 1:11 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Tue 10/13 7%
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 16%
Sat 10/17 17%
Sun 10/18 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at ORD that day
↑
10am departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is prone to delays
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.17 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.