Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4006
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
MQ 4006 · ELP → ORD
departs 7:30 AM MT · arrives 11:36 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14 18%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 14%
Sat 10/17 16%
Sun 10/18 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at ORD that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.