Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4102
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
MQ 4102 · DEN → ORD
departs 9:10 AM MT · arrives 12:43 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Wed 10/14 25%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 18%
Sat 10/17 20%
Sun 10/18 24%
Mon 10/19 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Gusts to 37 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.31 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.