Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4129
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
MQ 4129 · SGF → ORD
departs 7:15 AM CT · arrives 9:05 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14 30%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 19%
Sat 10/17 21%
Sun 10/18 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SGF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at SGF that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
7am departures from SGF are usually not late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SGF (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip 0.45 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.