Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

EGYPTAIR · FLIGHT MS 981 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

MS 981 · CAI → IAD

departs 12:19 AM EEST · arrives 5:33 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Other factors

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at IAD that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CAI

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

CAI (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MS 981 · CAI → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?