Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 1766 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

MX 1766 · GJT → LAS

departs 12:45 PM MT · arrives 1:16 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 70h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±19 pts +21 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ Gusts to 29 kt forecast at LAS that day

↓ GJT usually runs smoothly

↓ 12pm departures from GJT are usually not late

Weather at each end

GJT (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

LAS (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 1766 · GJT → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?