Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5161 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

OH 5161 · PHL → TYS

departs 3:48 PM ET · arrives 5:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TYS?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 3pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ TYS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling7,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TYS (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility0 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5161 · PHL → TYS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TYS?