Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5256 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

OH 5256 · PHL → SDF

departs 2:17 PM ET · arrives 4:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SDF?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SDF that day

↑ 2pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ SDF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling7,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.2 mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5256 · PHL → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?