Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5286 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

OH 5286 · BTV → PHL

departs 1:07 PM ET · arrives 2:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BTV

Weather at each end

BTV (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling7,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5286 · BTV → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?