Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4630
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
OO 4630 · MOT → DEN
departs 1:37 PM CT · arrives 2:32 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14 23%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 12%
Sat 10/17 10%
Sun 10/18 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave MOT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
Gusts to 37 kt forecast at MOT that day
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↓
MOT usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MOT (origin)
Gusts 38 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.30 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.