Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4647
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
OO 4647 · ASE → DEN
departs 8:33 AM MT · arrives 9:38 AM MT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Tue 10/13 24%
Wed 10/14 24%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 21%
Sat 10/17 19%
Sun 10/18 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±10 pts
+30 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
16%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +30 pts in 24h
+30 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave ASE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
16%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at ASE that day
↑
Gusts to 31 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at DEN that day
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
8am departures from ASE are usually not late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ASE (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.18 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip 0.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.