Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4656
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
OO 4656 · COS → DEN
departs 5:29 AM MT · arrives 6:20 AM MT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14 8%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 11%
Sat 10/17 9%
Sun 10/18 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave COS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 31 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at DEN that day
↑
Other factors
↑
Gusts to 37 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at COS that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from COS are usually not late
Weather at each end
COS (origin)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.12 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip 0.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.