Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4697
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
OO 4697 · DEN → MSO
departs 7:40 AM MT · arrives 9:55 AM MT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14 13%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 13%
Sat 10/17 12%
Sun 10/18 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSO more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at MSO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSO?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 31 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at DEN that day
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
MSO is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSO
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip 0.23 in
MSO (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.