Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4731
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
OO 4731 · DEN → SAF
departs 8:25 AM MT · arrives 9:44 AM MT
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14 15%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 13%
Sat 10/17 10%
Sun 10/18 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAF more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at SAF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAF?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into SAF at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 34 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip 0.27 in
SAF (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.