Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5016
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
OO 5016 · CMX → ORD
departs 6:19 AM ET · arrives 7:07 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Tue 10/13 11%
Wed 10/14 18%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 11%
Sat 10/17 13%
Sun 10/18 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±2 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave CMX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
CMX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.