Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5221
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
OO 5221 · AMA → DEN
departs 8:00 AM CT · arrives 8:41 AM MT
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14 31%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 15%
Sat 10/17 11%
Sun 10/18 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
+19 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave AMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at DEN that day
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
8am departures from AMA are usually not late
Weather at each end
AMA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 8,633 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.