Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 516
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
PD 516 · FLL → YYZ
departs 11:10 AM ET · arrives 2:23 PM EDT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/15
Sat 10/17 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at YYZ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to YYZ?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
11am departures from FLL are often late
↑
PD's recent on-time record
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at YYZ that day
Weather at each end
FLL (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
YYZ (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.