Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PHILIPPINE AIRLINES · FLIGHT PR 105
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
PR 105 · SFO → MNL
departs 12:46 AM PT · arrives 4:42 AM PST
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Tue 10/13 9%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 12%
Sat 10/17 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at MNL more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at MNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MNL?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
SFO is busy at that time
↑
PR's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MNL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.