Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PIEDMONT · FLIGHT PT 5837
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
PT 5837 · SBY → PHL
departs 6:44 AM ET · arrives 7:49 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14 8%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 10%
Sat 10/17 14%
Sun 10/18 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave SBY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
PHL is prone to delays
↑
PT's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
SBY (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.