Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PIEDMONT · FLIGHT PT 5840
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
PT 5840 · AVL → PHL
departs 6:47 PM ET · arrives 8:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Wed 10/14 15%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 27%
Sat 10/17 24%
Sun 10/18 18%
Mon 10/19 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↑
6pm departures from AVL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi forecast at AVL that day
Weather at each end
AVL (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.7 mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.