Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PIEDMONT · FLIGHT PT 5853
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
PT 5853 · AVL → PHL
departs 10:41 AM ET · arrives 12:39 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14 11%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 17%
Sat 10/17 15%
Sun 10/18 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
PT's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi forecast at AVL that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
AVL (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.