Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PIEDMONT · FLIGHT PT 5884
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
PT 5884 · YYZ → PHL
departs 4:36 PM EDT · arrives 6:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Wed 10/14 19%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 31%
Sat 10/17 31%
Sun 10/18 21%
Mon 10/19 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at YYZ that day
Weather at each end
YYZ (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.