Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PIEDMONT · FLIGHT PT 5930
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
PT 5930 · ROC → PHL
departs 6:07 AM ET · arrives 7:43 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Tue 10/13 6%
Wed 10/14 6%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 8%
Sat 10/17 8%
Sun 10/18 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
PT's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ROC (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.