Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PIEDMONT · FLIGHT PT 5935
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
PT 5935 · PHL → BUF
departs 3:21 PM ET · arrives 4:43 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Tue 10/13 14%
Wed 10/14 15%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 29%
Sat 10/17 24%
Sun 10/18 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
3pm departures from PHL are often late
↑
Arrivals into BUF at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
BUF (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.