Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PIEDMONT · FLIGHT PT 6045
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
PT 6045 · PHL → RIC
departs 9:15 AM ET · arrives 10:25 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Tue 10/13 12%
Wed 10/14 11%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 20%
Sat 10/17 15%
Sun 10/18 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at RIC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RIC?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
PT's recent on-time record
↑
PHL is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
RIC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
RIC (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.