Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PIEDMONT · FLIGHT PT 6133
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
PT 6133 · ILM → PHL
departs 3:21 PM ET · arrives 5:06 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Tue 10/13 17%
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 36%
Sat 10/17 27%
Sun 10/18 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave ILM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↑
PHL is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ILM (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 7,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.