Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2214
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
QX 2214 · YYJ → SEA
departs 6:08 AM PDT · arrives 7:03 AM PT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14 11%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 13%
Sat 10/17 13%
Sun 10/18 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave YYJ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
This route's recent record
↑
SEA is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
YYJ (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.