Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2427
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
QX 2427 · LAX → SFO
departs 6:34 AM PT · arrives 8:04 AM PT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Tue 10/13 11%
Wed 10/14 11%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 22%
Sat 10/17 22%
Sun 10/18 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±2 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
QX's recent on-time record
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.