Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2468
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
QX 2468 · SEA → RDD
departs 1:10 PM PT · arrives 2:58 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Tue 10/13 15%
Wed 10/14 17%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 26%
Sat 10/17 22%
Sun 10/18 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDD more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at RDD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDD?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from SEA are often late
↑
SEA is prone to delays
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDD
↓
RDD usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
RDD (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.