Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SUN COUNTRY · FLIGHT SY 3008 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

SY 3008 · STL → BWI

departs 6:29 PM CT · arrives 9:37 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.7 mi Precip0.47 in

BWI (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

SY 3008 · STL → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?