Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SUN COUNTRY · FLIGHT SY 8225 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

SY 8225 · RNO → LAS

departs 5:29 AM PT · arrives 6:52 AM PT

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±5 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ RNO is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from RNO are usually not late

Weather at each end

RNO (origin) Gusts2 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

SY 8225 · RNO → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?