Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1010 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

UA 1010 · DEN → TPA

departs 9:40 AM MT · arrives 3:14 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts34 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.39 in

TPA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1010 · DEN → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?