Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1113 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

UA 1113 · GRR → ORD

departs 8:45 AM ET · arrives 8:49 AM CT

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at ORD that day

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GRR

↓ 8am departures from GRR are usually not late

Weather at each end

GRR (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1113 · GRR → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?