Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1238 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

UA 1238 · EWR → AUS

departs 9:25 AM ET · arrives 12:22 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 9am departures from EWR are often late

↑ EWR is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1238 · EWR → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?