Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1269 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

UA 1269 · ORD → BWI

departs 7:49 AM CT · arrives 10:45 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.17 in

BWI (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1269 · ORD → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?