Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1304 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

UA 1304 · ORD → SNA

departs 9:23 AM CT · arrives 11:55 AM PT

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ SNA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.40 in

SNA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1304 · ORD → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?