Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1451 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

UA 1451 · DEN → JAX

departs 10:05 AM MT · arrives 3:39 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JAX?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into JAX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts37 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.30 in

JAX (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1451 · DEN → JAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAX?