Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1503 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

UA 1503 · DTW → ORD

departs 8:57 AM ET · arrives 9:16 AM CT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1503 · DTW → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?