Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1504 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

UA 1504 · LGA → ORD

departs 3:25 PM ET · arrives 5:20 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±13 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from LGA are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.48 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1504 · LGA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?