Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1521 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

UA 1521 · DSM → DEN

departs 9:14 AM CT · arrives 10:20 AM MT

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DSM that day

↓ 9am departures from DSM are usually not late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DSM (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.37 in

DEN (destination) Gusts34 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.39 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1521 · DSM → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?