Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1686 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

UA 1686 · DEN → PHX

departs 11:25 AM MT · arrives 12:25 PM MT

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ 11am departures from DEN are often late

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts34 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.27 in

PHX (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1686 · DEN → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?