Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1811 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

UA 1811 · PHL → ORD

departs 9:29 AM ET · arrives 10:43 AM CT

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at ORD that day

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ ORD is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1811 · PHL → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?