Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 181 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

UA 181 · FRA → DEN

departs 11:27 AM CEST · arrives 1:47 PM MT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±1 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FRA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

FRA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts34 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precip0.27 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 181 · FRA → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?