Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1992 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

UA 1992 · DEN → AVL

departs 9:45 AM MT · arrives 2:47 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±4 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AVL?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ DEN is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi forecast at AVL that day

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts34 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precip0.27 in

AVL (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1992 · DEN → AVL

Odds over time

How late will it get to AVL?