Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2009 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

UA 2009 · IAH → MCI

departs 7:51 AM CT · arrives 9:57 AM CT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 70h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Arrivals into MCI at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.64 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2009 · IAH → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?